Covid19? what are you willing to risk?

Yesterday, the governor of my state lifted regulations for restaurants.
So for Waffle House, that means they could open again.

What's the difference between a restaurant and a bar? As long as they're practicing "social distancing"?

I love "steak and eggs" from Waffle House.

I also love a burger and fries from a local sports bar.

I also love a gourmet meal from a different restaurant. Especially if it includes foie gras.

I'm interested in your opinions, just because I'm curious.

Are we being fed a line from the news media? Regardless of it's conservative or liberal?

I find it really hard to believe anything I see on TV anymore.

Cheers,
Bill

I'm with Fox Mulder......

TRUST NO ONE

I live in Virginia. We have a governor who, although term limited, is a power-grabber and an ideologue. Thus, he's grabbed as much as he can with this coronavirus issue and has run with it.

But I use the data from the Virginia Department of Health, where I can get a more accurate picture than what I see and hear in what passes for "news" these days. Here are some raw numbers:

The county I live in is one of the most populace (408,650 as of 2018), yet it's #8 (tied with four others) on the list of COVID-19 deaths. Twelve. That's right, for a ratio of 2.9 deaths per 100,000. Ten of those deaths have data recorded (the last two only have the sex of the victims so far recorded). Of those ten, eight were over 80 years of age. The other two were over 70. Six were men and six were women. All of them lived in long-term care facilities (8) or "congregate" settings (adult daycare, group homes, etc.).

Twelve deaths out of over 400,000 people. In the same amount of time this data has been kept (since March 17), we've collapsed the economy, and the suicide rate has climbed.

Now I know I don't live in New York City. So why should I have to behave as though I do? In my mind, there is either a lot of truly bad decision-making based on erroneous "scientific models," or there is some major sociological behavior modification experiment being conducted. And I'm not usually a conspiracy theorist.

I just don't think the numbers add up.

In my county, less than 0.001% have tested positive. The mortality rate for those 0.001% is at 0.8%.
Suicides are up, homelessness is up, crimes are up, all because of the crushed economy.
I wish we were this concerned with things that have such a greater negative impact on health as cancer (1 of my best friends had had 2 treatments cancelled), influenza, various addictions, suicides, vet situations.

Mods feel free to remove if needed

Not to promote a political statement, but another way to put this:
in my county yesterday, abortions performed yesterday resulted in more deaths than the entire COVID19 deaths.
Somehow, abortions are considered essential, but the chemo treatments for my friend are considered elective.

totally not a conspiracy theorist but there are discrepancies that want for explanation. MA has 5 times the population of NH. As of last Saturday, the final day of which I received my local newspaper in print form (publisher going all-digital because of coronavirus), there were 53 deaths out of 1.4 million people. MA has 2300 deaths out of 7 million people. If all things were equal, we should have had 460 plus deaths in NH. We didn't. Why? I've got nothing. Yes, population density has something to do with it. There's got to be something more to it than that.

I have little doubt people behind the scene are using this as a major laboratory for social engineering and control. The media is complicit in encouraging panic and hoarding. The level of fear-mongering that constant instantaneous communication brings to the table is unprecedented in human history. Add that to the polarization of politics from the last 20 plus years and it doesn't spell a comforting scenario for the future.

I can't even begin to imagine the effect this is having on the young. Stuff like this was my worst nightmare when I was a tween becoming a teenager. I was far better read than my contemporaries, and learned a lot from history. If this shit had happened when I was going through my mid teen angst, there's a fairly decent probability I wouldn't have seen my 20s.

Not willing to risk anything.

Death is final.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Frat Rettle

Not willing to risk anything.

Death is final.

---

Same!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Frat Rettle

Not willing to risk anything.

Death is final.

---

Exactly! Not just your own, but people you know can get it. I think it is not as much a conspiracy or power grab (at least not on the state/local level - I know better than to voice my opinion here on the national level), but the fact that elections (on both sides) are more popularity contests than people voting for who can do the best job.

Our Governor quickly became unpopular because he started tackling the state deficit and budget shortages and that meant cuts and tax increases. Doing the right thing made him unpopular. He's really stood tall during COVID 19 and shown real leadership. I suspect that leadership will cost him re-election.

Frankly elections have become all about "Bread and Circuses"... we are all A. D. O. S. (Attention Deficit, Ooh Shiny)and are paying the price for always going for the shiny politician. Politicians should keep their mouths shut and let the doctors and scientists make the decisions when it comes to medical crises.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by phantomman

I'm with Fox Mulder......

TRUST NO ONE

---

I'm with Roger and Mulder on this.

In our jurisdiction, we're a long way from any type of relaxation of distancing rules (Ontario, Canada). No one wants to see this rushed and fortunately our various levels of gov't have got most everyone's financial security covered. My family and I are in a good situation. Two salaries for the time being, no mortgage, kid's high school is 100% online, she's not falling behind and we still have our collective sanity. In fact, I'm thriving - getting more work done with fewer distractions, stress level way down, eating healthier, getting more exercise and better sleep. Blood pressure down. Nothing to complain about here.

But I'm also in the danger zone with a possible immune function disorder. Had a bad case of infection (not COVID) earlier this year and have already suffered through a 42 day case of flu + pneumonia in 2018. I'm not taking any chances. I have immune function testing scheduled starting next week, so I hope to have more clarity on my particular situation soon. Unless I get the all clear from the docs, I'm going to be working from home as long as I can, even if and when our offices open back up. That's just the way it is and I am good with that!

I do expect some peer pressure from my bandmates at the point where small gatherings are allowed. I intend to proceed on the side of caution at that point.

To be clear, its not "fear" of COVID, it's my own personal risk assessment. When I feel the risks are mitigated, then I might trust others! Right now, no way.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DanTheBluesMan

totally not a conspiracy theorist but there are discrepancies that want for explanation. MA has 5 times the population of NH. As of last Saturday, the final day of which I received my local newspaper in print form (publisher going all-digital because of coronavirus), there were 53 deaths out of 1.4 million people. MA has 2300 deaths out of 7 million people. If all things were equal, we should have had 460 plus deaths in NH. We didn't. Why? I've got nothing. Yes, population density has something to do with it. There's got to be something more to it than that.

---

There sure is: the timing and strength of response has a lot to do with it - how and when mobility restrictions were put into place; how and when physical distancing measures were implemented; how and when gathering places were locked down. All of this has been managed on a state-by-state basis. nothing surprising here to me with these numbers. We're seeing the same in Canada. Quebec got hammered. I live five minutes from Quebec and we've gotten off relatively lightly. Why - differential in provincial response. Quebec also had spring break start and end two weeks before Ontario - therefore more people per capita LEFT the province and came back at the height of the period of transmission. Ontario with 14.5 million people, has a fraction of the cases and deaths. Why? Quick and hardline response. No messing around.

Also - geographic proximity to other major centres - NH is surrounded by Maine, Vermont and Quebec's Eastern Township - not exactly hugely populated areas; and finally, number of and sizes of major gathering places/points of congregation - does NH have an international airport the size of Logan?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DanTheBluesMan

I can't even begin to imagine the effect this is having on the young. Stuff like this was my worst nightmare when I was a tween becoming a teenager. I was far better read than my contemporaries, and learned a lot from history. If this shit had happened when I was going through my mid teen angst, there's a fairly decent probability I wouldn't have seen my 20s.

---

I'll agree with you there too. The indirect human toll is bound to be significant - not just those dying or sick from the disease, but economic impacts, mental health impacts, etc etc etc. We'll be feeling the impacts for a long time, I believe.



* sorry had to split up my response to fit the per-post word limit.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DanTheBluesMan

I have little doubt people behind the scene are using this as a major laboratory for social engineering and control. The media is complicit in encouraging panic and hoarding. The level of fear-mongering that constant instantaneous communication brings to the table is unprecedented in human history. Add that to the polarization of politics from the last 20 plus years and it doesn't spell a comforting scenario for the future.

---

I have a LOT of doubt about that! I've spent the last couple of decades working in an area where I know a lot of the people "behind the scenes" and know how the machinery that would be needed to pull of something like this functions. There's no way in hell this is a globally-coordinated, international social engineering and control experiment. No-one could pull this off at this scale. Not even the Ruskies! I DO think this turning is out to be what's called in the business a "natural experiment" where the hypothesis is absent and the outcomes yet to be determined. All we have is data - and only partially in context right now. About the only experimental outcome so far is the very immature metrics used to measure public health vs economic and social security. I'll grant you the critique on the media piece, though....95% nonsense, regardless of your political affiliation.

At the start of this whole thing I said to my wife, "we don't know anyone who is sick with COVID-19. Nobody in our circle of friends has even been hospitalized, let alone died." Within a week I learned that a friend & local blues musician in the Seattle area had passed away from it. Then the names started adding up. Kind of took the wind out of the whole COVID-hoax thing for me
http://images.lilypix.com/albums/use...the-mill-4.jpg

learned that since Saturday there have been 700 more deaths in MA and 7 more in NH. If our geographic isolation is our burden to bear, I can deal with it.

So far my friend's youngest cousin, a medical professional in Philly, got it and is still recovering. His mother-in-law and sister-in-law in Spain both got it, but appear to be out of danger. My brother's high school sweetheart lost her husband last week to it in Maine. We're waiting for news about my nephew's fiance, who has something but it isn't confirmed what yet. This is far from a hoax, it is very real.

Still not convinced that lessons from this will be learned, and that fear-mongering can and most likely will be used against us in the future. There have been warnings about pandemics for decades now. With nearly unfettered travel worldwide, it was just a matter of time. It just took the right kind of pathogen.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DanTheBluesMan

This is far from a hoax, it is very real.

---

The disease is unequivocally real.

It's the origins, the vectors, the victim demographics, and the treatments which are suspect.

agreed

I'm with you, Cogs.

I'm not going to get into the minutia, but I wish we'd leave topics alone that are going to get political. And I knew this one would just from looking at the thread title.

It's up to you guys, but I'd prefer to keep the discussions on guitars, girls, guitars, and what you're doing this weekend.

[QUOTE=ch willie


It's up to you guys, but I'd prefer to keep the discussions on guitars, girls, guitars, and what you're doing this weekend.[/QUOTE]


Same.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ch willie

I'm with you, Cogs.

I'm not going to get into the minutia, but I wish we'd leave topics alone that are going to get political. And I knew this one would just from looking at the thread title.

It's up to you guys, but I'd prefer to keep the discussions on guitars, girls, guitars, and what you're doing this weekend.

---

You forgot guns. :D

We sure need a "like" button!

I risk my life everyday I get outta bed. I drive I run this risk of dying. I go to work I run the risk of dying.. I plug my Tele into my DR I run the risk of electrocution.. I go to sleep I may not wake up.. ect.. ect.. Life is full of risk I refuse to live in fear from a virus that Kill's less than,00.01 % of the people it infects. My freedom dose not end where YOUR fear begins!

And just to b clear; I know it's real never doubted that. You wanna stay inside I'm cool with that, But please respect the fact if I wanna go to work to pay my bill's feed my self, not live off the Government teat I have a right to do that..

One can argue theories forever. Anybody can say whatever they wish. You can quote statistics based on hearsay.

What one can't argue are facts.

And the facts show that were I live 18,015 people have died from COVID-19. That's a lot of people.

The facts show that the most common comorbitities among those that have lost their lives are by a wide margin hypertension and diabetes.

Another fact is that 299,261 have tested positive where I live, with 4,585 people being tested positive on Tuesday alone. If the trends stay the same, 5% of those 4585 people - 229 people - will die from COVID-19.

Now, the theory is that these numbers would have been much higher had we not modified our behavior. While a theory, since we have no control group, there is strong evidence to confirm the theory.

You can argue and opine until the cows come home but the facts are the facts. And to those who think it's a government conspiracy I would argue that the only government conspiracy is that a certain part of the government and media are trying to make you believe it's not as bad as the facts show. There are facts to back that up.

The fact is if you roam freely you may never get sick, but you may can kill another person you've never met as a result your actions. Even if it's only one in several million, are you willing to take that risk?

Regarding the flu analogy - this is in addition to - not in place of deaths due to influenza. That's like saying it's OK because a lot of people die in car accidents too. If that's your argument - maybe it's time for a little self-reflection.

I would say all IMHO, but in this case facts are facts.

Chuck

Thanks, OA. My thoughts exactly. That’s what I would have liked to say.

I like everyone on our forum and I hope we will not let politics alter our fun with and respect for each other.

I am still not impressed with EITHER SIDE'S ability or desire to roll with the FACTS.

I'll say it again: NO DENOMINATOR NO EQUATION.

And both have shown a complete disdain for that.

You simply cannot either judge a reaction (nor plan with any confidence) with a lack of knowledge of the most basic fact in the equation.

When we have no idea (other than some VERY granular localized studies) how widespread it already is.

It would have been pretty simple to do a coast to coast randomized sampling.

It still ain't there.

What might be prudent for a crowded city, (that relies heavily on subways, and elevators), doesn't make sense for a place like mine. There are elevators in the hospital, but most all transportation is by private vehicle. Our governor, (d), has gotten full of herself declaring some business as non essential, while allowing "big box" stores to remain open. She's feuding with the mayor of Grants who has said business should be allowed to open, taking precautions, but "nope!" The mayor called her bluff, over the golf course being open, she sent state police to issue a "warning" ticket to him. He said he'll be back, and when they issue the ticket for a fine, he'll see them in court.
If fear keeps folks inside, it's not up to me to shutter my business over their concerns, many others want to get on with life!

I really don't care what anyone's politics are. All sides (hey, my country has more than two relevant parties) have their drawback, flaws, shortcomings. Keep in mind that they are all politicians not regular people like us! LOL.

Anyways, back to the topic - risk. I think we need to differentiate fear from risk in our discussion. I don't fear getting sick or dying from COVID-19 and I don't fear for others. But at the same time, I'm not looking to get sick or die or inflict that one anyone else. So, me, I manage my risk of exposure. That's called individual risk management and it's something we're all doing according to our appetite for risk. That's normal and to be expected.

The risk management that's happening in wider society is a bit of different animal. The assessment of risk is usually based on the combination of two vectors: likelihood and impact. And it's this likelihood that's not well understood - as @renderit says, we have no denominator. All we know is per capita infection rates - in my locale, that's currently 1 in 1000 and climbing. Death rate comes close to describing likelihood but neither are probabilities, they're descriptive statistics. The impact is more well understood: severe illness and death.

So, IF I get infected (probability unknown), I may be one of those 3% that dies from it. My actual likelihood is unknown, but it's greater than zero. So, I'm going to do what it takes to reduce my personal likelihood from whatever to as close to zero as I can.

And that is exactly what our governments are trying to do in various ways - reduce likelihood odds at a societal level. You might not like the way they're doing it, you might vehemently disagree with that on fundamental levels, but that's all they're trying to do. If you're OK with being a vector of disease transmission, whether you get sick or not, that's up to you. But my wellbeing doesn't end where your freedom begin. That's pretty much protected in the constitutions of both of our countries (US and Canada). Sorry, Sergio, I don't know if Brazil is the same or not.

If I lived in a state with 19 million plus people I would be more cautious to it would be foolish not to I would still go about my business though. I still say that 18-19,000 deaths are still with in the rage of percentage for 19 million + in NY state like I said above do the math, like you said facts don't lie . Also I would think that some of those people died from influenza not just SARS C- 19. The Governor of NY state just like where I live here in Michigan are overstating the problem for political gain I for one have a problem with that.That is a fact... I don't want to see anyone die from any demise but like pointed out above it can happen to anyone anytime by a wide rage of ways.

We are compromising our immune response from lack of sun light, exposer to pathogens, viruses the common cold the list goes on and on. Like I said you wanna stay inside do it I'm cool with that. Don't not infringe on my freedoms to work, play or socialize. It's a sad day here when I see people just trying to work to pay for life and wonder if the Government is going to shut them down, pick who can and cannot work. That my friends is flat out WRONG! The problem I see with the lock down advocates is they think that's the only way to combat this virus, well my good people look at Sweden and 8 states that never did...

Something I find very odd is. If I asked anyone if they trust the Government 2-3 months or so back I bet most would have said no. Now most people say they are just trying to keep us all safe..WTF? I still don't trust them...lol

The lock downs aren't political?
My wife is having to wait to get her cataracts removed, "it's elective surgery", but if she wanted an abortion, "it's essential surgery!"

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by phantomman

I'm with Fox Mulder......

TRUST NO ONE

---

More or less my point.

I apologize that it may have seemed to turned political.

The main point of my post is I don't trust anyone anymore. Government, News media, or internet.

Thanks for your posts, but i don't trust whatever you say here.

Maybe that will be the end of it.

Perhaps the best reason for term limits, but I'm not suggesting that.

Moderators, feel free to delete this.
Cheers,
Bill